Gulab Chand Tejwani

Author Archives: Gulab Chand Tejwani

Time Series Analysis

In this series I am going to provide you very brief introduction about time series analysis.

Introduction

  • Time play a very important role in success of any business, here time series helps us to see ahead of time.
  • Time series is a sequence of equally distributed data point in order of time. Data point can be presented on List or a chart.
  • This is a statistical technique for trend analysis

Time Series Analysis?

  • Time Series analysis is a way to analyzed time data to get important statistics and other useful points of time series data.

Time Series Forecasting?

  • Time series forecasting is use of a time series model to predict future values based on past observed value in time series.

Applications

  • Stock Market Analysis
  • Economic Forecasting
  • Sales Forecasting
  • Financial Market Analysis
  • Inventory Management
  • Yield Projections
  • Military Planning
  • Marketing and Sales Forecasting

Lets explore some basic terms used in time series.

Time Series

  • Machine Learning dataset contain a collection of many attributes or observation.
  • Example
    • Attribute
    • Attribute
  • In time series dataset a time attribute is added. As Time play a very important role to predict value of future dates.Example
    • Time, Attribute
    • Time, Attribute

Time series components

Trend

It is a increase or decrease of behavior of data over a period of time. It can be linear or non-leaner. If there is upward or increase behavior called as Up-Trend, same for decrease know as Down-Trend. When there is no trend that is known as stationary trend or horizontal trend.Trend appear for some time and disappear.

  • Example :-A packers and movers open new office at newly constructed society. That will get good business over a period of time like 6 Month until all houses get filled. After that it will be no or very less business.

Seasonality

  • It is very much similar to trend but in repetitive in nature.
  • It is also increase and decrease in behavior data over a period of time.
  • Example : – sales increase each year on black Friday. Gifts purchases increase each year on Christmas and other festivals and it happen each year.

Noise/Irregularity

  • Variability in data that cannot be explained by model. It also called as residual.
  • It happen for a small amount of time and non-repeatable mode.
  • Example :- earthquake in a city can increase demand  of medicine and some other day to day living stuffs. But it will end once everything is fine. It happen once and not predicable.

CYCLIC

  • It is known or describe as a non-fixed pattern for more than a year amount of time.
  • It can happen any time like 3 years, 5 year and keep repeating and hard to predict.

When this not applicable 

  • When data is constant that time then this is not applicable.
  • When data is in form of a functions, where we can put function to get result.

 

I am going to cover in-depth concept and particle aspect in coming posts.

Keep reading….

How to write great headline in no time

Are you not able to write great headline for article or ad copy?

As we know headline is first place to grab attention. This is place your targeted customer make decision to go further with article or ad copy.

Are you feeling writing great headline is hard?

Writing attention grabbing headline is bit tricky job.

No Worry, Here I am going to explain how to write great headlines.

First make your reader feel smarter, don’t go with fancy complex English words try to use common words.

Secondly tell what end user is going to get.Here things must be clear and loud enough to get attentions.
like – FREE Coffee, FAT Loss, Learn SEO, FREE Ad Copy Course,Learn Digital Marketing @ 2999/- etc.

Next handle any objections if end user have any.like – Trust,paying amount,Will I get result?

and lastly put a clear time frame in which end user is going to get results. you have to lock things in fix time frame like 7 days, 10 days,3 months so end user can make decision faster.

Lets take a example: Learn digital marketing Free in 7 days.

here we are addressing


End result : Learn digital marketing
Objection : End user not willing to pay
Time : end user going to learn in 7 day


we can write same headline in different ways

How to learn digital marketing in 7 days without spending money.
7 ways to learn digital marketing for free.

 

Want to Improve your digital marketing skills

Some Tips to write great headlines.

write Headlines between 10-15 words.As this length give best result.
Use number 5,10,15 or 7 if you are using some

like Example

10 ways boost your immunity easily without workout.
7 simple way to become a expert digital marketer

Now you might have any question in mind is there any tool that can tell me my headline is good or not?

Yes there is a tool that will help you to analyze

https://coschedule.com

its a great free tool to improve your headline.

 

Coming soon with few more tips to improve headline and story writing.

Value of best fit Keywords To gain high Page Rank

Keywords are the thing that your clients will use when looking out.
You would possibly know what your clients seek for. If not, discover out. Is it an outline of “pants” or “denims?” One could also be searched extra typically than the opposite, however why not goal each? How about “government items?” Possibly “desk equipment” will broaden your site advertising technique.

Ask every kind of individuals. Get recommendation from individuals in all walks of life together with administration, staff, clients, distributors, family and friends on how they might seek for efficient search engine positioning keywords. Ask them how they might seek for completely different services and products. It is actually not about what you assume they might seek for, its about what they assume. Imagine me, they will many occasions be two completely various things.

After getting efficiently harvested a significant keywords listing, take away any keywords which might be too focused or to not particular. Additionally do not forget that keywords placement is necessary. Attempt to put as many keywords as doable to start with paragraphs, and naturally the title line.

 

GET FREE Keyword cheatsheet!!

become master of keyword selection

 

The upper the worth of the keyword the extra competitors you should have. Each website positioning makes use of instruments just like the Overture keyword Suggestion Instrument and in addition know the worth of a keywords. The decrease the worth of the keyword the much less competitors we may have.

 

We do not wish to purpose to low however we additionally do not wish to purpose to excessive. We have to discover a center floor. For you that could be a key phrase with a worth of a minimum of 1000 and not more than 10,000. It will likely be as much as you to find out what you deem affordable.

Additionally, the key phrases ought to seem usually all through the opening Net web page. It’s particularly necessary that they seem ceaselessly within the opening paragraphs.
Nevertheless, resist the temptation to overuse key phrases. The major search engines can spot it and can cut back your web page rankings. Instruments can be found to assist with optimum key phrase density. Nevertheless, keep away from software program that writes the positioning’s pages. Engines like google can sniff these out, too.

An excellent rule of thumb is: By no means sacrifice high quality of content material for key phrase placement. It will have an effect on your web page rating. Most significantly, your web site will not enchantment to guests.

Critical path method

Critical path method

critical path method

critical path method

Critical Path : is a combination of activities that, if any are delayed, will delay the project’s finish date.

Purpose of critical path method:

1. To calculate the project’s finish date.

2. To identify how much individual activities in schedule can slip with delaying project

3. To identify the activities with the highest risk that cannot slip without changing the project finish date.

Float Calculation using CPM

● Float is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the project end date.

● Float is always Zero on Critical Path activities.

● Critical Path is longest path of network diagram.

a

Each activity have same box

ES : Early Start

EF : Early Finish

LS: Late Start

LF : Late Finish

Float = LS-ES or LF-EF

Float Calculation

Late Start(LS) – Early Start(ES)

OR

Late Finish(LF) – Early Finish (EF)

Example

You are the project manager of project at SkillsMag and following activities are identified along with the activity effort.

Project A
Activity Preceding  Activity Duration (Wks)
Start None 0
A Start 1
B Start 3
C Start 5
D A 9
E B,C 2
F C 3
G D 4
H E 8
I F 2
End G,H,I 0

First  prepare schedule network Diagram

network diagram

network diagram

Step 2:

Calculate the ES and EF of each activity using forward pass technique.

Remember the following formulas for calculation.

Early Start (ES) = Early Finish(EF) of Predecessor activity. If no predecessor activity exists then 0.

Early Finish (EF) = Early Start (ES) + Activity Duration

Activity E is highlighted as it has 2 predecessor activities. we take higher one.

network diagram

network diagram

Step 3:

Under this technique, we will start calculating the value from last activities on the path i.e. from G,H and I.

Thumb Rule : Take highest EF.

Our case we have EF 15 is highest for activity H.

The formula for LS(Late start) is

Late Start (LS) = Late Finish – Activity Duration

Activity c has 2 successor activity,take lowest one.

network diagram

network diagram

Step 4 : Float calculation

float

float

 

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Project Integration management

Project Integration management

Project integration management

Project integration management

Project Integration management is main responsibility of project manager. Here project manager has to do high level of project work and balancing between different processes.

[box] As per PMBOK®

“Project Integration management includes the process and activities need to be identify, define, combine, unify and coordinate the various process and project management activities within the project management process groups.”[/box]

Figure given Below shows project integration management processes and their respective process groups

Project integration management Process group (done during )
Develop project charter Initiating
Develop project management plan Planning
Direct &manage project work Executing
Monitor  & control project work Monitoring and controlling
Perform integration change control Monitoring and controlling
Close project or phase Closing

 

Let’s have better understanding for each process of integration management.

Develop Project Charter:

This is very first part of integration management.

Develop Project Charter
  Inputs

1.       Project Statement of work

2.       Business case

3.       Agreements

4.       Enterprise environmental factors

5.       Organizational process assets

 Tool  and Techniques

1.   Expert judgement

2.   facilitation techniques

Outputs

1.       Project charter

 

 

[box]As per PMBOK®

“Develop project Charter is the process of developing a document that formally authorize a project or a phase and documenting initial requirement that satisfy the stakeholder need and expectation. ”[/box]

Project charter should be developed by project sponsor, Customer, PMO or they can delegate duty to Project manager.

Project Manager is assigned in this process.

It formally authorizes the project.

Now let’s have a look on input, tool & technique and outputs of project charter

Inputs

Project statement of work:

[box]As per PMBOK®

“The statement of work (SOW) is a narrative description of product or a services to be delivered by project.” [/box]

The project statement of work contains

  • Business need
  • Product description
  • Strategic plan

Business case:

Business case provides necessary information from business point of view whether project is feasible or not.

Business case is created based on one of following points

  1. Market demand
  2. Organizational need
  3. Customer request
  4. Technological advance
  5. Legal requirement
  6. Ecological impact
  7. Social need

Agreements:

When working for external customer the contract is used as an input.

Enterprise environmental factors:

Enterprise environmental factors that can affect the development of project charter.That can be

  1. Government & industry standards
  2. Organizational infrastructure
  3. Marketplace condition
  4. Environment of project

Organization Process assets:

The organizational process assets that can effect development of project charter process may contain Organization standard process, Templates, Historical information and lesson learned and knowledge base.

Tool & Techniques

  1. Expert judgement

Expert judgement technique is used in every integration management process.

In this judgement is provided based on expertise by expert person of their fields.

They can be individuals, subject matter expert (SME), Consultant, stakeholder or group(s).

 

  1. Facilitation techniques

Brainstorming, managing meetings and keeping them on track, resolving conflict, and resolving problems are part of facilitation techniques. These techniques are used by facilitator.

Outputs

  1. Project Charter

Project Charter is final outcome of develop project process. It provides summary of project.

Project Charter contains following things

  1. Project proposal or justification
  2. Summary budget
  3. Summary milestone
  4. High level or requirements
  5. High level of project risks
  6. Measurable success criteria
  7. Assigned project manager.
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Project management basics part 2

Project management basics part 2

Project Management Basics

Project Management Basics

In continues series of project management basics, in this article going to learn about different type or organizations and various project management roles. To understand project role first we need to know well about different type of organizations.

Different kind of organization types

Functional organization

In this type of organization project is performed under functional department. This kind of organization structure is very common .Here project team member are not dedicated to project they are loaned from functional departments.

Pro :

These organization have experts by functions.

Easy resources scheduling.

Cons:

Project manager having very less authority towards a project.

Projects have lower priority.

Matrix organization

It’s a hybrid type of organization in that project manager share responsibility with functional manager for project resources, priorities.

This type of organization can be divided in weak matrix, balanced matrix and strong matrix organization

Pro :

They have well managed  project as well as experts and specialists.

Cons:

Resources have to report to both project and functional manager.

Higher chances of conflicts between Project Manager and Functional manager.

 

Projectizied organization

This kind of organization is separate from functional department. The organization is designed according to the project not based on functional department.

Pro:

Project manager is fully responsible for project and its outcome.

Team is highly committed to project.

Easy and smooth communication.

Cons:

Project team  belongs to project not to functional department.

There is no home for team members once project is over.

Note:  for more detail about organization types and their comparison see my upcoming articles.

Now let’s have a look at different project management roles. It is very important to know difference between various project roles for PMP,CAPM and other project management  exam point of view. Additionally it also helps you to work more efficiently in organization if you understands different roles and their responsibilities.

Project Manager

He is the person who is completely responsible for all project activities and results of project. They found in matrix and projectized organization. Project manager should not escalate any project related issue or problem to someone else.

Project Coordinator

Weak matrix or functional organization does not have role for project manager. They have role called project coordinator.  This role have less authority then project manager. This role is not allowed to make budget decision but have little authority to reassign resources.

Project Expeditor

This is weakest role in project management. Project expeditor only make sure that things complete on time.  This role has no formal authority. This kind of role is found in functional organization.

Stakeholder

Person who is involved or affected by project in either positively or negatively know as a stakeholder.

Sponsor

The person who is paying all expenses of project. Sponsor may be from organization itself (internal) or external to the organization. Sponsor and customer may or may not be same.

Program manager

Program manager is responsible for program. Program manager manages project and programs at higher level than project manager.

Functional manager

Functional manager is also known as a line manager. He actually manages group or department that actually perform a service or create a product.

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Project management basics

Project management basics

Project Management basics

Project Management basics

 

To learn more about project management we have to get familiar with some basics of project management. Here we are going to learn few project management concepts.Even these terms are very easy to learn but they have important place in project management learning as well as PMI’s project management professional (PMP) and Certified associate in project management (CAPM).

  1. What is process?

A set of action to achieve specific end result or output for the project.

PMP and CAPM exam points of view process is group of input, tools & technique and outputs.

Output of one process may input of another process.

Process can be performed more than one time on the project.

  1. What is Operations?

Operation is ongoing process and always gives same outcome. They are not part of Project but can be part of a program.

Example of operation is, School management is daily managing students for day to day routine.

  1. What is Project?

Project is always temporary.

It has predefined start and end date.

It has a set of operation to achieve a single goal.

At the end it creates unique product, service or result.

[box type=”shadow”]

Examples of Project:

A new Venture. (Goal: Product)

Market research (Goal: Result)

Process improvement (Goa: Service)

[/box]

 

  1. What is Program?

Program is group of related projects and sub-program. Program may also contain operations.

  1. What is Portfolio?

Portfolio is group of related programs and projects. It should be aligned to meet business objectives.

  1. What is progressive elaboration?

The iterative process of getting detail about project as we progress. At the start of project we know very little about project.

  1. What is project Management?

Project Management is combination of knowledge, skills, tools and techniques to full fill project requirement.

  1. What is baseline?

Simply we can say it is original plan or any approved changes in project plan from formal change control procedures.

  1. What is lesson Learned?

The experience gained during a project in each phase of project.

It is an organizational asset.

It is used as an input in many project planning processes.

In this we focus on what was happen instead of what should happen and how we can handle this kind of situation in current project.

  1. What is historical information?

All the information and data from previous project is known as a historical information. It is part of organizational process asset.

project management basics Part -2 

Project selection methods

Project selection methods

Project selection methodsThere are various project selection methods. They are divided in two categories

  1. Benefit measurement method
    • Murder board
    • Scoring model
    • Peer review
    • Economic model
  2. Constrained optimization method (Mathematical )
  • Linear programming
  • Dynamic programming
  • Integer programming
  • Multi-objective programming

Let’s have some introduction of  different project selection methods.

Benefit cost ration (BCR):

It is a ratio of benefit over cost. If the Value of benefit cost ration (BCR) is grater then 1 (one) it is good.

Example 1: If project one is having BCR ratio of 1.9 and project two is having BCR ration of 2.2.Which project you will you choose?

Solution:

Project two as it has a greater BCR Value than project one.

Example 2:

If you expect cost of project is $90,000 and you expect to gain $1,80,000 from complete project. Calculate BCR for that.

Solution:

Benefit cost ratio (BCR): benefit over cost= benefit/cost

Here benefit is $1,80,000 and cost is $90,000

So BCR= 180000/90000=2

 

Internal rate of return (IRR) :

It means project’s return as an interest rate. Bigger internal rate of return (IRR) is always better.

Example: You have two projects, Project one has IRR of 10% and project two has IRR or 20%. Which one will you choose?

Solutions:

Project two as it has bigger IRR(20%) than project one (10%).

 

Present value (PV) & Net Present value (NPV) :

present value means current value today of future cash flow. You can calculate with the help of

PV=FV/ (1+r) n

Here

PV= Present value

FV= future value

R= rate of return

N=number of time period.

Bigger PV or NPV is better.

Example: You have two projects. Project one has NPV of $90,000 and project two has NPV of $60,000. Which one you are going to choose from those?

Solution:

Project one as it has greater NPV.

Opportunity cost:

It means selecting one project over another by giving up opportunity. Smaller opportunity cost is better for project selection.

Example:

If you have two projects project one has NPV of $38000 and project two has NPV of $90000.What is opportunity cost for selecting project two.

Solution: $38000 is opportunity cost.

Payback period:

It measure time that how long it will take to get an investment back from project.

Example: You have two projects project one have payback period of 3 months and project two has payback period of 6 months. Which one you choose?

Solution: It is project one as it has less payback period.

Return on investment (ROI):

It shows how much percentage you make by investing in project. Bigger ROI is always better.

Returned on individual capital (ROIC):

It shows how money is used in invested project. We display this as a percentage.

ROIC= Net income/total investment

Economic value added (EVA):

It represent how much value a project has truly created for its stakeholders. In other words we can say whether project returns to the company more value than its cost.

project management plan

project management plan

 

Project management plan is master plan for project. It is developed once project charter is approved.

[box] “Develop project management plan is process of documenting the actions necessary to define, prepare, integrate and coordinate all subsidiary plans. The project management plan define how the project is executed, monitored & controlled and closed.”[/box]

It integrates all the knowledge area. It also include baseline of project. Project baseline once defined can only be change through perform integrated change control process.

To develop successful project plan one should have following skills.

  • Negotiation
  • Leadership
  • Active listing
  • Brainstorming
  • Communication skills
  • Conflict resolution

 

Develop project Management plan
Inputs

·         Project Charter

·         Output from planning process

·         Enterprise environment factor

·         Organizational process assets

Tool & Techniques

·         Expert judgement

·         Facilitation techniques

Output

·         Project Management plan

 

Inputs

 

Project Charter: Please click here to see more about project charter.

Output from planning process:

Information from other planning processes help to develop project  plan.

Table below shows various planning process

Scope management plan
Requirement management plan
Project scope statement
Scope baseline
Schedule management plan
Schedule baseline
Cost management plan
Cost performance baseline
Quality management plan
Process improvement plan
Human resource plan
Communication management plan
Risk management plan
Procurement management plan
Stakeholder management plan

 

Enterprise environment factors: Please click here to see more about Enterprise environment factors.

Organizational process assets: Please click here to see more about Organizational process assets.

 

Tools and Technique:

 

Expert judgement

Expert judgement technique is used in every integration management process. In this judgement provided based on expertise by expert person of their fields. They can be individuals, subject matter expert (SME), Consultant, stakeholder or group(s).

 

Facilitation techniques

Brainstorming, managing meetings and keeping them on track, resolving conflict, and resolving problems are part of facilitation techniques. These techniques are used by facilitator.

 

Output:

Project management plan is main output of this process. It is a formal approved document. Table above shows components of that.

pmp formulas

pmp formulas

pmp formulas

pmp formulas

 

Here is list for pmp formulas.

PERT = (P+4M+O)/6

P = Pessimistic

M= Most Likely

O= Optimistic

Standard deviation = (P-O)/6
Variance = {(P-O)}/6
Project PERT = Sum of PERT value of each task

 

Project Variance = Sum of variance of each task
Normal distribution (sigma)

6 sigma = 99.99%

3 sigma = 99.73%

2 sigma = 95.46%

1 sigma = 68.26%

No of communication channel = N*(N-1)/2

Here N is number of member in project team

If team have 10 member then =10 *(10-1)/2 =>10*9/2=>45 Communication channel

Float = LF – EF = LS- ES

LF = Late finish

EF = Early finish

LS = Late start

ES = Early start

Float value is 0(zero) on critical path.

Schedule variance (SV) = EV-PV     (Positive variance is good)

EV = Earned value     PV=Planned value

Cost Variance (CV) = EV- AC    (Positive variance is good

EV = Earned value     AC= Actual cost

Cost performance index (CPI) = EV/AC

(>1 are good)

Schedule performance index (SPI) = EV/PV

(>1 are good)

Estimate at complication  (EAC) =

1.       Estimating assumptions are not  valid = AC+ETC

2.       Current variance are atypical = AC+BAC-EV

3.       Current variance are Typical =AC+(BAC-EV)/CPI

4.       Variance to continue at current rate = BAC/CPI

5.       EAC = AC + [(BAC -EV)/(CPI*SPI)]

Estimate to complete (ETC)  = EAC-AC
Variance at complete (VAC) = BAC-EAC
TCPI =

1.       TO Complete performance index based on BAC= (BAC-EV)/(BAC-AC)

2.       To complete performance index based on EAC= (BAC-EV)/(EAC-AC)

Percentage complete of budget=(EV/BAC)* 100
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) = Payback/project cost

Bigger is better

Net present value (NPV) bigger is better

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) bigger is better

Present Value PV=  FV / ((1 + r)^term)
Expected Monetary Value = Probability * Impact
Procurement related

Actual cost (AF) ={(TC-AC)*SSR}+TF

TC = target cost

AC = actual cost

SSR= Sellers share ration

TF= target fee

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