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Data Science

Time Series Analysis

In this series I am going to provide you very brief introduction about time series analysis.

Introduction

  • Time play a very important role in success of any business, here time series helps us to see ahead of time.
  • Time series is a sequence of equally distributed data point in order of time. Data point can be presented on List or a chart.
  • This is a statistical technique for trend analysis

Time Series Analysis?

  • Time Series analysis is a way to analyzed time data to get important statistics and other useful points of time series data.

Time Series Forecasting?

  • Time series forecasting is use of a time series model to predict future values based on past observed value in time series.

Applications

  • Stock Market Analysis
  • Economic Forecasting
  • Sales Forecasting
  • Financial Market Analysis
  • Inventory Management
  • Yield Projections
  • Military Planning
  • Marketing and Sales Forecasting

Lets explore some basic terms used in time series.

Time Series

  • Machine Learning dataset contain a collection of many attributes or observation.
  • Example
    • Attribute
    • Attribute
  • In time series dataset a time attribute is added. As Time play a very important role to predict value of future dates.Example
    • Time, Attribute
    • Time, Attribute

Time series components

Trend

It is a increase or decrease of behavior of data over a period of time. It can be linear or non-leaner. If there is upward or increase behavior called as Up-Trend, same for decrease know as Down-Trend. When there is no trend that is known as stationary trend or horizontal trend.Trend appear for some time and disappear.

  • Example :-A packers and movers open new office at newly constructed society. That will get good business over a period of time like 6 Month until all houses get filled. After that it will be no or very less business.

Seasonality

  • It is very much similar to trend but in repetitive in nature.
  • It is also increase and decrease in behavior data over a period of time.
  • Example : – sales increase each year on black Friday. Gifts purchases increase each year on Christmas and other festivals and it happen each year.

Noise/Irregularity

  • Variability in data that cannot be explained by model. It also called as residual.
  • It happen for a small amount of time and non-repeatable mode.
  • Example :- earthquake in a city can increase demand  of medicine and some other day to day living stuffs. But it will end once everything is fine. It happen once and not predicable.

CYCLIC

  • It is known or describe as a non-fixed pattern for more than a year amount of time.
  • It can happen any time like 3 years, 5 year and keep repeating and hard to predict.

When this not applicable 

  • When data is constant that time then this is not applicable.
  • When data is in form of a functions, where we can put function to get result.

 

I am going to cover in-depth concept and particle aspect in coming posts.

Keep reading….

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Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid. I find your lack of faith disturbing.

The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers. As you wish.

Remember, a Jedi can feel the Force flowing through him. The plans you refer to will soon be back in our hands. Ye-ha! The plans you refer to will soon be back in our hands.

The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers. In my experience, there is no such thing as luck. Red Five standing by.

A tremor in the Force. The last time I felt it was in the presence of my old master. I have traced the Rebel spies to her. Now she is my only link to finding their secret base. Remember, a Jedi can feel the Force flowing through him.

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All right. Well, take care of yourself, Han. I guess that’s what you’re best at, ain’t it? A tremor in the Force. The last time I felt it was in the presence of my old master. I have traced the Rebel spies to her.

Remember, a Jedi can feel the Force flowing through him. I can’t get involved! I’ve got work to do! It’s not that I like the Empire, I hate it, but there’s nothing I can do about it right now. It’s such a long way from here. I call it luck.

The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers. In my experience, there is no such thing as luck. Red Five standing by.

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Oh God, my uncle. How am I ever gonna explain this? Hey, Luke! May the Force be with you. I find your lack of faith disturbing.

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